Although sales of plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs) to date have not met the expectations of automakers and government officials, the market is expanding rapidly in North America as the vehicles become more widely available.
Overall, sales of PEVs in the United States are expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 18.6 percent between 2013 and 2022—significantly higher than the growth expected for the overall light duty vehicle market during the same period. According to a new report from Navigant Research, the states of California, New York, Washington, and Florida will lead the United States in annual sales of PEVs through 2022.
“The market for plug-in electric vehicles is beginning to mature now that the most popular models, the Chevy Volt and Nissan Leaf, are available in all North American markets, and Ford, Mercedes Benz, Toyota, Mitsubishi, Honda, Fiat, and Tesla are all ramping up production of competitive vehicles,” says David Alexander, senior research analyst with Navigant Research. “BMW and Volkswagen will soon add to the choices, and greater availability of charging infrastructure is supporting this growth. The majority of PEV sales will remain close to major cities on the east and west coasts.”
he real story of plug-in electric vehicle (PEV) sales in the United States and Canada can be found in the cities and utility service territories where the vehicles will be located. In order to understand how geographically diverse PEV sales may be in North America, this report segments sales forecasts by state, metropolitan statistical area (MSA), and utility service territory in the United States and by province and the nine largest cities in Canada. The forecasts were created by analyzing OEM vehicle rollout schedules, population and demographic trends in comparison to early PEV and hybrid electric vehicle (HEV) owner demographic profiles, and attitudes toward electric vehicles.
As a result of this analysis, Navigant Research projects that California, New York, Washington, and Florida will lead the way in PEV sales in the United States. By 2022, Hawaii is expected to have the highest concentration of annual PEV sales (in terms of percentage of overall vehicle sales in the state), followed by California and Oregon. Los Angeles, San Francisco, and New York City are anticipated to have the largest sales of PEVs through the forecast period. In Canada, the provinces of Ontario, Quebec, and British Columbia will account for 97% of Canadian PEV sales by 2022 (they also account for 75% of the Canadian population). The cities of Toronto, Montreal, and Vancouver will lead Canadian PEV sales. Navigant Research forecasts PEVs will reach 416,153 annual sales in the United States and 230,479 in Canada by 2022.
This Navigant Research report provides data and forecasts for the PEV market for U.S. states, MSAs, and utility service territories, and for Canadian provinces and cities. The study provides sales forecasts from 2013 to 2022 at each geographic level and analysis of major trends in the forecasts. Percentage penetration and cumulative sales data are also provided.
Key Questions Addressed:
- Which U.S. states and Canadian provinces have the greatest affinity toward electric vehicle ownership?
- How do demographics affect PEV ownership?
- How quickly will the PEV market grow in North America over the next 9 years?
- In which U.S. and Canadian areas will PEV sales grow the fastest?
- How big will the market share of PEVs be in selected states, MSAs, utility service territories, provinces, and cities?
- How many vehicles will electric utilities have to prepare for in the future?