Bloomberg New Energy Finance estimates that China installed at least 12 GW of solar photovoltaic (PV) capacity in 2013, citing preliminary figures by the nation's National Energy Administration.
BNEF suggests that the final number may be as high as 14 GW, but even the 12 GW number is 50% more than any other nation has installed in one year to date. The company notes that change to the nation's feed-in tariff at the end of December 2013 created a rush to complete projects.
“The 2013 figures show the astonishing scale of the Chinese market, now the sleeping dragon has awoken” said BNEF Head of Solar Analysis Jenny Chase.
“PV is becoming ever cheaper and simpler to install, and China’s government has been as surprised as European governments by how quickly it can be deployed in response to incentives.”
BNEF notes that its Industry Intelligence database has already recorded 9.5 GW of projects built in China during 2013. BNEF researchers continue to add projects, and expect to have “nearly complete” data by March 2014.
China's PV projects are concentrated in Western China, which offers high solar radiation and is sparsely populated. Gansu Province had 24% of all installations, with another 18% in the Xinjiang Region and 17% in Qinghai Province.
As a result of the nation's market growth, state-owned power generation companies China Power Investment Corp. (CPIC, Beijing), China Three Gorges Corp. (Beijing) and China Huadian Corp. (Jinan, China) have become the world's largest owners of PV assets.
BNEF expects China to miss its 2014 target of 14 GW. The company says that the government's goal for 60% of 2014 installations to be rooftop PV connected to the distribution grid will bring additional legal and financial complications for developers. However, it expects the nation's market to grow again in 2015. Overall, BNEF estimates that 39 GW of PV was installed in 2013, a 28% increase over 2012 numbers. expects another 20% growth, which would put the market to about 47 GW. In 2014, the company expects another 20% growth, which would put the market to about 47 GW.