New solar photovoltaic (PV) demand added during Q1’14 exceeded 9 GW, which was 35% more than the previous first-quarter record, set last year. In fact, every quarter in 2014 is forecast to reach new highs, with trailing 12-month demand at the end of Q1’15 forecast to exceed 50 GW for the first time, according to findings in the latest NPD Solarbuzz Quarterlyreport.
Trailing 12-Month Solar PV Demand
The record level of demand achieved in the first quarter was driven by strong growth in Japan and the United Kingdom. These two countries combined accounted for more than one-third of global solar PV demand in Q1’14 and set new quarterly records for PV deployed.
“This is the fifth straight year that a quarterly record has been set at the start of the year,” said Michael Barker, senior analyst at NPD Solarbuzz. “While demand during the first quarter typically sets the low point for the year, deployment levels during this quarter provide an excellent means of benchmarking demand for the rest of the coming year.”
Solar PV demand during the first quarter typically accounts for up to 20% of annual demand. For example, Q1'13 demand for nearly 7 GW was followed by full-year demand above 37 GW. “Purely on a pro-rata basis, Q1’14 provides strong confidence that 2014 solar PV demand will indeed reach, and possibly even surpass, the NPD Solarbuzz full-year forecast of 49 GW in 2014,” Barker noted.
With Q1’14 now closed, the trailing 12-month demand suggests that the true size of the industry today is almost 40 GW. By the end of Q1’15, the PV industry will likely break through the pivotal 50 GW barrier, bringing the industry much closer to rational supply and demand levels.
“During the past few years, the solar PV industry has been waiting for end-market demand to catch up with the excess manufacturing capacity added between 2010 and 2012,” added Finlay Colville, vice-president of NPD Solarbuzz. “This wait is now coming to an end. As annual demand approaches the 50 GW level, suppliers will finally be able to shift their focus from short-term tactical survival to long-term strategic planning.”