Solarbuzz has published an analysis which predicts that up to 750 MW of self-consumption distributed solar photovoltaic (PV) plants may begin construction by the end of 2013.
Solar PV Demand from the Asia Pacific Region
According to NPD Solarbuzz Analyst Steven Han, China's Bureau of Energy has released the first batch of Distributed PV Generation Application Demonstration plants, which total 1.8 GW. These plants will be eligible for China's feed-in tariff and other incentives.
“The prioritization for self-consumption of PV power generation by the Bureau of Energy appears clear now,” notes Han. “This should accelerate the completion of approved pipelines and will help to grow the rooftop segment of the Chinese PV market significantly in the next few quarters.”
16 commercial developers and two utility developers were approved to build the projects in 10 provinces, with the largest portion at 378 MW in Beijing and 350 MW in Zhejiang.
These developers can claim the nation's feed-in tariff of CNY 0.42 (USD 0.069) per kWh, as well as a desulfurization tariff. Han notes that developers can claim additional incentives in some regions including Jiangsu and Anhui.
Han notes that financing and tariff distribution timelines have been barriers for developers, but says that policies will be established in the second half of 2013 to address these issues, citing un-named sources.
CECP (Beijing) received the largest number of projects at 200 MW, followed by Remote Power (Beijing) at 178 MW. All developer groups have committed to self-consumption levels of at least 70%, with Yingli Green Energy (Baoding, China) and Freesolar committing to 100%.
Record PV Demand from China and Japan Marks Turning Point for Solar Industry
Solar photovoltaic (PV) demand from China and Japan during 2H’13 is forecast to reach 9 GW, representing an increase of 100% compared to 1H’13 and 70% compared to 2H’12. Overall, PV demand from the Asia Pacific (APAC) region will exceed 16 GW during 2013, up 90% Y/Y, and will account for over 40% of global PV demand this year, according to findings in the new NPD Solarbuzz Asia Pacific Major PV Markets Quarterly.
“The record level of PV shipments to China and Japan coincides with corporate margins returning to positive territory and the final shakeout phase of uncompetitive manufacturers nearing completion,” according to Finlay Colville, vice president at NPD Solarbuzz. “Having entered 2013 with a highly cautious outlook, tier-one suppliers are poised to exit the year with restored confidence, ahead of optimistic shipment and margin guidance for 2014.”
China is forecast to become the top country for PV deployment in 2013. During Q2’13, rooftop installation demand in China exceeded ground-mount installations for the first time, stimulated by government plans to develop the distributed generation segment. However, as bottlenecks related to project financing and grid accessibility for solar farms are resolved, 2H’13 will see strong ground-mount deployment from China Power Investment, China Guangdong Nuclear, Three Gorges Group, and other utility developers.
Japan continues to be the most active PV market this year, with growth of 150% in 2013 compared to the prior calendar year and a forecast of over 5 GW in the pipeline for installations before the end of Q2’14. PV demand in Japan during 2H’13 will be driven by the commercial and utility segments with 65% market share, in contrast to 2H’12 when the residential segment accounted for over 75% of demand.
Within the other key APAC markets, Australia and India, solar PV demand is being affected by policy disruptions. India is subject to delays in Phase II of the National Solar Mission, the ongoing anti-dumping case, and the prospect of reduced feed-in-tariff (FIT) payments. Within Australia, forthcoming elections and uncertainty over the future of the carbon tax and the Renewable Energy Target are also hindering growth.
While China and Japan are currently fuelling project pipelines, demand from the APAC region remains highly dependent on Chinese and Japanese FITs. In Japan, the market is also showing signs of strain: module shortages have been reported, and developers are being forced into remote geographic areas.
“End-market growth in China and Japan has become essential to support domestic manufacturers and project developers, in addition to contributing to renewable targets,” added Colville. “However, we do not yet know how far the subsidies will be reduced during 2014 or how much capacity can be added before market caps on annual PV installations will become necessary.”
Leading Solar PV Suppliers Reach Record Shipment Levels in Q2’13
uarterly solar photovoltaic (PV) module shipments for the 20 leading PV manufacturers exceeded 5.8 gigawatts (GW) during the second quarter of 2013 (Q2’13). This record-high module shipment volume represents 21% growth from the Q2’12 level of 4.8 GW, according to findings in the new NPD Solarbuzz Module Tracker Quarterly.
When the final results become available over the next few weeks they are expected to show that Chinese tier-one manufacturers, including Yingli Green Energy, Trina Solar, Jinko Solar, Renesola, and Hanwha SolarOne broke their quarterly module shipment records in Q2’13. In particular, Yingli Green Energy’s quarterly shipments are expected to have reached 0.8 GW, which would represent a new world record for any single PV supplier.
“Yingli Green Energy has been strongly focused on market share gains over the past four quarters,” said Ray Lian, senior analyst at NPD Solarbuzz. “The company is rapidly approaching 10% global market share, and has now become the clear leader in megawatt shipments. The leading solar PV suppliers are now starting to pull away from the pack, which provides strong evidence that the anticipated industry consolidation is finally in progress.”
Q2’13 Global PV Module Shipment
However, setting new records in shipments is not the only tactic being employed. Some module suppliers are prioritizing profitability over market share, resulting in only moderate shipment increases for Q2’13. Priorities for this subset of suppliers include downstream project expansions or market share gains in only premium-price regions.
In Japan, the highest growth PV end-market today, Chinese tier-one manufacturers Canadian Solar and JA Solar have now become the leading overseas module suppliers. However, buyers in Japan remains strongly loyal to Sharp Solar, Kyocera, Solar Frontier, Panasonic, and other domestic brands. Over the past four quarters, these four suppliers have accounted for 54% of modules shipped by the 20 leading module suppliers to Japan.